Indian stock markets recovered from continuous downtrend as Sensex crossed 26,000 and Nifty crossed 8,000 today. The December series saw a strong start in the markets. Short covering and value buying attracted the investors. The markets have already lost more than 7% in November as of today.
Today both Sensex and Nifty rose by more than 1%. The broader markets such as Midcap and Smallcap stocks also surged more than 1%. Markets witnessed positive breadth as 3 stocks gained against each declining stock. Technology stocks saw biggest gains as rupee declined against USD. Heavyweights such as ICICI Bank, SBI, L&T, Reliance Industries and Bajaj Auto underperformed comparatively.
Markets have been crashing down lately due to domestic as well International factors. Factors such as rupee slide, US Fed’s rate hike possibility, demonetization, and average earnings expectations for December quarter have impacted the equity markets. Analysts expect that markets still may go down due to these factors.
Some analysts expect a steep downfall of around 6% in the worst-case scenario. Sensex must show volatility and some technical bounceback but the downside trend still remains.
Flattish earnings expectations and global currency crisis will continue to impact the markets. A worst-case scenario of 7,500 may be on the cards for Nifty 50. Foreign portfolio investors have sold due to US Fed hike expectations. The Indian Rupee may also slip to 70 level as the US Dollar continues to strengthen. NSE data suggests that Rs 12,000 crore in equities and almost 12,000 crore in bonds have been wiped out in November.
Prabhudas Lilladher said that “Selling by FIIs is expected to keep the pressure on stock valuations. We expect the market to trade lower. Though we expect relative overweight positions to be maintained, we are revising the market to trade in the 7,600-8,300 range in the near term.”
However analysts are positive on the equity markets in the medium to longer term time horizon. Indian growth story and consumption based economy has a lot of value to offer.